The role of climate change foresight for primary and secondary raw materials supply

Topic description

ExpectedOutcome:

The successful proposal will support the transition to a digital and low carbon society in the context of the European Green Deal with a particular emphasis on climate change and raw material value chains. In particular, it should contribute to all of the following expected outcomes:

• Short-, medium-, and long-term scenarios of changes in the type, origin and quantity of raw materials (metals/minerals) required for the twin transition.
• Geo-referenced projections for the changes to the greenhouse gas and energy footprint associated with the supply of these primary and secondary raw materials with a view to facilitating their use in integrated assessment models.
• Models and data contributing to the development of the European Commission’s Raw Materials Information System^[1].
• Inputs to international scientific assessments such as reports by IPCC, the International Resource Panel and IPBES.

Achieving enhanced digitalisation and a low carbon society will involve a change in the type and quantity of the raw materials required by the economy. This can result in geopolitical shifts in extraction and processing, as well as an increase in the extraction, processing, and recycling of many minerals and metals, including ones that have so far been only marginally important. Materials are likely to be extracted from increasingly lower grade ores and hostile environments, from mining wastes, as well as through recycling. Ceteris paribus, this would involve a general increase in the energy required to supply raw materials, as well as associated greenhouse gas emissions and changes in some other environmental impacts (such as related to transport and land take for mineral extraction and waste disposal). It will also involve changes in technologies and substitution to materials with lesser environmental impact, some of which not sufficiently well understood. This can include consideration of substitution and circular use of materials.

This action will improve knowledge concerning the options, and challenges, in the short, medium, and long-term associated with the provision of raw materials required for the twin transition with a focus on interlinkages with climate change.

Sectors, technologies and material value chains to be analysed will be selected on a justified basis. The project will analyse changes to the carbon footprint associated with supply options for a justified selection of primary and secondary raw materials for short, medium and long-term time horizons. Options analysed will relate to raw materials likely to have large changes in supply due to the twin transition, where important geopolitical and technological changes are likely in relation to the twin transition and circularity.

The analyses should build on established life cycle assessment and product environmental footprint requirements, as relevant, and contribute to their further development. Modelling should be detailed to account for geo-political/site-specific changes in supply, technologies, and e.g. energy consumption. Scenarios will build on, as far as available, existing demand scenarios from European Commission modelling activities, and are expected to take into account the relevant EU policies (Fit-for-55 package, carbon neutrality by 2050). Scenarios are expected to account for the foreseen variation and innovation advances in extraction, processing, recovery, recycling and other technologies along the value chains, including changes to the energy mixes involved at specific locations.

The proposal will include the involvement of experts for the different technologies related to the primary and secondary raw material options selected as well as representatives of the integrated assessment modelling community.

This action will develop state-of-the-art knowledge (models and databases) in relation to climate change and the implications of different options associated with the twin transition and the related increases in supply of some raw materials.

The action will build on existing modelling work for the supply and demand of primary and secondary raw materials and expand them to reflect typical transition pathways, to highlight the implications on climate change.

The action will align to established requirements of existing methodological and data frameworks such as for life cycle assessment and product environmental footprint.

While focusing on selected technologies and site-dependent modelling, conclusions should provide insights related to opportunities and challenges for sectors associated with the twin transition.

Proposals should consider the involvement of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) whose contribution could consist of interacting in relation to the EC’s Raw Materials Information System and its underlying sectorial value chain analyses in the contexts of geopolitical foresight, life cycle assessment, and circular economy.

Stakeholders are to be selected on a justified basis to be consulted at key steps to provide informed feedback on the modelling, data and analyses.

[1] https://rmis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/