European Energy and Climate Modelling Forum (2020-2024)

Topic description

Specific Challenge:

The European Union aims to decarbonise its economy according to policies for 2020 and 2030 and long-term visions for mid-century. The Commission has extensively used energy and climate economic models to assess the impacts of its policies and has supported the development of new knowledge in this field. As the energy transition will require radical changes in energy production, distribution and use, there is a need for a diversified set of modelling approaches to add robustness to the technical feasibility of the identified pathways and the evaluation of their respective costs and benefits.

Currently, the European energy and climate modelling landscape is quite fragmented. Structured, multilateral communication between modelling groups and other stakeholders was only recently initiated via the Energy Modelling Platform Europe^[1], whereas similar initiatives have a long history in the USA^[2] and at UN level^{[3] [4]} and also exist in China^[5].

The European capacity to explore the pathways to achieve its long-term climate and energy objectives needs to be enhanced and these efforts need to be made within a structured and transparent framework that results in tools that are open for use by all stakeholders.

A new "European Energy & Climate Modelling Forum" will structure and manage joint model benchmarking and comparison exercises on the EU energy system, climate mitigation and its regional and sectoral components along relevant policy questions. This does not include new model development, but will:

1. Benchmark and compare different assumptions, data sources, scenario building and modelling suites to explore the pathways to long-term climate – energy policies;
2. Interpret the results across different societal, economic, and policy perspectives;
3. Provide robust evidence supporting the development of near-term and long-term policies for the implementation of the 2030 and 2050 objectives;
4. Support the development of modelling capacity in Member States/Associated Countries and create a technical (IT-based) communication channel between the EC and Member States. This will complement existing channels like the Energy Economics Group^[6] (which gathers experts from the Member States/Associated Countries) and new groups arising from the regulation on the governance of Energy Union or groups from Framework Programme research projects. No group currently exists for climate policy, but the project could actively support engagement between member states stakeholders and modellers.
5. Link with existing global modelling projects, such as COMMIT, and projects under Horizon 2020 Work Programmes to support the transition to a low-carbon energy system (LC-SC3-CC-2-2018)^[7] or to improve integrated assessment models and use them to inform policy-making (LC-CLA-01-2018)^[8]
6. Contribute to joint scientific publications from modelling teams.

Besides managing the core comparison activity, the forum will:

1. Organise regular meetings to share findings and to brainstorm on research questions with policy relevance and directions for the European energy and climate modelling community;
2. Contribute to the development of a truly integrated approach by considering the possible feedbacks between the energy system and the environment;
3. Organise, store or link the quantitative information produced by modelling exercises in a transparent and accessible manner;
4. Interact with a wide range of stakeholders including modelling experts working for Member States/Associated Countries and other entities as well as promoting links with policy makers at all levels.

The Commission considers that proposals requesting a contribution from the EU of around EUR 5 Million would allow this specific challenge to be addressed appropriately. However, this does not preclude submission and selection of proposals requesting other amounts.

At least 60% of the estimated budget should be allocated directly to climate and energy modelling activities.

Results from the Forum’s activities (modelling comparisons, scenarios etc.) will inform the development of future energy and climate policies at national and European level.

The Forum will create a closer, stronger, European modelling community. It will present a more coherent, unified evidence base that will, in turn, form a concrete basis for action by policy makers.

It will also improve collaboration beyond Europe, which will lead to a greater influence on global energy and climate policy.

Open Science
Socio-economic science and humanities

[1]Energy Modelling Platform Europe http://www.energymodellingplatform.eu

[2]Energy Modelling Forum (US) https://emf.stanford.edu/

[3]IIASA multi-model database https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/AR5DB/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=about

[4]Climate Watch data portal https://www.climatewatchdata.org/pathways/models

[5]China Energy Modelling Forum http://www.cemf.net.cn/en/index.php

[6]Energy Economics Group (EEG) https://www.psi.ch/eem/

[7]https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/opportunities/topic-details/lc-sc3-cc-2-2018

[8]https://ec.europa.eu/info/funding-tenders/opportunities/portal/screen/opportunities/topic-details/lc-cla-01-2018